2005 Fantasy Basketball Sleepers
Everyone knows about Josh Howard, Dwight Howard, and Chris Bosh. Here are a few “real” sleepers poised to make huge gains heading into the 2005 NBA Regular Season.
Josh Childress, G/F, Atlanta Hawks
Josh Childress is the second coming of Shawn Marion. Check out these rookie year stat comparisons:
Marion Childress
FG .471 .470
FT .847 .851
3PM 0.1 0.2
PTS 10.2 10.1
REB 6.5 6.0
AST 1.4 1.9
ST 0.8 0.9
BLK 1.0 0.4
TO 1.0 1.3The similarities are astounding: both are long and athletic, have funky looking jump shots that fall for high percentages, and were poorly hyped but highly drafted after coming out early from West Coast colleges.
In the last two months of last season, J-Chill stepped up his game and played a whopping 38.1 minutes per contest, averaging 14.5 points, 7.7 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.2 steals, .4 blocks and only 1.6 TO, while shooting a 48.6% FG and 85.0% FT. Wow. That placed him #47 on the player rater for that time span, just ahead of Zydrunas Ilgauskas and only four spots behind a turnover-prone Dwyane Wade.
In his sophomore year, Marion’s numbers jumped to 17.3 points, 10.7 rebounds, .3 treys, 2.0 assists, 1.7 steals, 1.4 blocks and 1.8 TO, with a 48% FG and 81% FT. Expect similar numbers for Childress this season, with fewer blocks, slightly fewer rebounds, and more threes.
Juan Dixon, G, Portland Trailblazers
Juan Gone steps into a starting role this year on a Trailblazers squad in desperate need of leadership and stability. Is he up to the challenge? In four games as a starter in Washington last year, Dixon averaged these numbers:
FG FT 3PM PT REB AST ST BLK TO
448 900 1.3 16.5 4.0 3.8 3.25 0.5 2.8The stat that really pops out here is the 3.25 steals. Although Dixon will not come close to duplicating this, he could average nearly 2 steals per game if given 35+ minutes per night. The FG will be closer to .410, but the FT will remain around .900.
A guard who averages 16-4-4 with 1.5 threes and 1.5 steals while averaging 90% from the line—Dixon probably will come close—is welcome on my fantasy roster any time. He could crack the Top 50 if he keeps his turnovers under control and his minutes up.
Caron Butler, F, Washington Wizards
Arthroscopic knee surgery in 2003 slowed Butler’s development after an impressive rookie season with the Heat. Still only 25, Butler now stands poised to join the ranks of fantasy’s elite as Larry Hughes’ likely replacement in Washington.
He never turns the ball over and he's a steals machine. He will shoot around 45% from the field and over 80% from the line, and will probably score in the neighborhood of 18 ppg. During last season's final month, he was ranked #12 overall—just behind Andrei Kirilenko and just ahead of Ray Allen.
After finishing at #55 overall last year, Butler should settle comfortably into the Top 50, with an upside in the Top 30.
posted by Michael Deuser @ 5:15 PM
3 comments
3 Comments:
DM- Dixon's lack of playing time in the preseason game against Seattle (only six minutes) does make me very worried. I'll defer to your defensive evaluations since I haven't actually watched him play very much, but I do think if he plays a lot, he'll be a pretty valuable fantasy commodity.
Childress, though, I feel very very good about. I went to college with him and watched him play a lot, and he's incredibly good. Prince went 14.7, 5.3, 3.0, and .7 Stl last season--his third.
Childress put up numbers almost identical to those in the last two months of last season, except with more steals, and it was his rookie year.
Add to this that Prince is turning 26 in February, while JC won't turn 23 until next June.
Plus, Childress has Marion-esque pogo stick jumping ability--it's ridiculous. I haven't seen that from Tayshaun. Prince does look good to me, but he's no Childress.
Just stumbled on these comments here, so pardon me if I'm coming to the party late.
It was nice to read that someone else is high on J-Chill this year. My selection of him in the eighth round of our league's draft was greeted with several rousing choruses of "Show 'em my motto!" (due to his remarkable resemblance to the Sprite spokespuppet, Thirst). While I think the comparisons to a young Matrix might be a tad over-optimistic, I am heartened to see that he's getting mad minutes this preseason so something along the lines of a 15-6-3 average this year is probably within reason.
My only trepidation is that I also selected J-Smoove and Pachulia as my backup center, so I'm a bit overloaded with players from the same team - something I try and shy away from. So at some point I might try and package one of them in a trade. But right now, I have no idea whether I'd be better off keeping Smoove or Chill. Guess, I'll just have to wait and see.
Finally, I'd forget about Dixon. I live in Portland and according to the local papers here, Juan's gradually working his way into Coach McMillan's doghouse due to his lackadaisical practice habits. Dixon claims he's never gone all out in practice at any level and has always saved his best for games but McMillan says that won't fly on his watch. It looks like the rookie Martell Webster and retread Charles Smith are moving ahead of Dixon on Portland's depth chart.
OK, OK, I admit it... My projections for Dixon are looking pretty foolish with him playing less than 10 minutes per night. Doghouse or not, I think McMillan would be a fool to start Charles Smith (sounds like a corny white dude) or Martell Webster over Juan Gone. But he's the coach, and I'm the unpaid blogger.
Re: Childress. He really is the man. You're right that 15 could be his ceiling with Pachulia and Smith and Harrington hoisting up shots. That's a shame, though, because Childress is the best percentage shooter of that group, from the field and the line, and he creates his own shot, even if he doesn't look pretty doing it. Considering he grabbed 6 boards during his rookie season, I think that's a low estimate for this season, though.
No need to split hairs, though. He's the balls.
I'm not a Josh Smith fan. See: Harold Miner.
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