Saturday, January 29, 2005

Basketball Monster Player Rater

A shout out to Give Me The Rock for linking to the coolest, free-est player rater out there.

Basketball Monster allows you to enter your league settings and your roster and crunches customized rankings based on your input.

Now can you stop wondering if that guy in your league really does have a self-calculated player rater that is perfectly tailored to measure your league...

This is it.

Blowing Up: Dan Dickau

Dan Dickau
Dan Dickau, PG, New Orleans Hornets

At the beginning of this week, I told you that Dan Dickau in a starter's role was Kirk Hinrich lite, and that he looked like a great short-term add.

He's getting heavier by the day.

Last night, in an OT victory against Philadelphia, Dickau dropped a career-high 16 assists to go along with 19 points on 7-15 1-6 4-5 shooting. He grabbed five boards and three steals and he turned the ball over three times. For those of you keeping score, that's a 5.33 single-game A/T ratio.

What kinds of numbers would your squad have recorded this week if you had added Dick on Sunday?

They look like this:



GPFGFT3PMPTSREBASTSTLBLKTO
4.500.7862.521.34.59.01.50.02.0

Over this period, his A/T ratio is 4.5 and he's averaging over 40 minutes.

His time as a starter may still be limited, but it just got extended.

Baron Davis is back to the IL for at least two weeks to rest his bruised Achilles. It's also been referred to officially as a bruised right ankle. Either way, it's not good.

It seems official now that dude's body is all messed up. It's easy to forget that his career was in jeopardy after he blew out his knee at UCLA. Those who saw him play before that injury insist that he had lost explosiveness by the time he arrived in the league.

Neverthless, Baron built a reputation as an ironman when he entered the league. Over his first three seasons, Davis played in all 82 games each year.

Over the next two seasons, he averaged 58.5 games. So far this year, the Hornets have played in 41 games. Baron has participated in 17 of them. His sub-40% FG when he's healthy is bad enough; playing in fewer than 40% of your team's games is unforgivable for a guy who was gone in the first three rounds of almost every draft. His back is always in spasms. He has knee history. And now his Achilles is a problem.

To complicate the situation and further reduce his value, trade rumors continue to swirl around Davis, although this latest round of problems might do something to cool those. Davis would love to leave, but he's difficult to move.

For the next two weeks, Dickau is the only true point guard on the roster. Look for his strong production to continue, if not at this ridiculous rate. It will be interesting to see what happens if and when Baron comes back or gets traded. It looks to me like the Hornets have found their elusive "point guard of the future." Trust me: it's not Baron Davis.

Friday, January 28, 2005

Jalen Rose = Starter

Raptors-Hornets 1/28/05

Just a heads up. Jalen Rose is starting tonight over Eric Williams. Welcome back.

The early returns are good. Very early returns. In 11 minutes, Rose has 6 points on 2-3 FG, 1-2 3Pt, 1-3 FT, with 5 REB and 2 AST. No turnovers. The first quarter just ended. Let's see how the game shapes up, but a pace of 24 PTS, 4 3PM, 20 REB, 8 AST, 0 TO sounds good.

Nice job, Sam Mitchell. Sure, J-Rose has his limitations, but he just may be an improvement over Eric Williams. What's next, Donyell Marshall starting over Rafael Araujo? Let's not get too ridiculous here... Sam knows his guys.

Thursday, January 27, 2005

The Daily Dime #1

Here at Drop It Like It's Hot, we believe in taking a good, hard look at those boxscores every night, schedule permitting. We know that it doesn't always permit, so we want to do the work for you, and take you on a quick walk through each day's most intriguing performances. Schedules being what they are, we'll appreciate your restraint in not pointing out that these updates will not always, in fact, be daily.

MEM 111, CLE 114

Stromile Swift followed up his 38 minute, 18 point, 9 rebound performance with 10 points, 5 boards, and 2 blocks in only 23 minutes. This doesn't bode well... Gasol still wasn't on the court.

Zydrunas llgauskas went for 22 points, 9 boards, 5 blocks, 1 steal, 1 turnover on 7-14 from the field and 8-11 from the line. Sometimes it looks like Z's slumping, but actually he's just maddeningly inconsistent.

Drew Gooden: 27 PTS, 11 REB, 2 AST, 1 BLK, 11-18 FG 5-9 FT. Nice.

LAC 105, LAL 89

Trust me, you weren't too excited about any of the Lakers' performances in this one.

Jaric's second game back, plays 24 minutes and drops 11 dimes...

Chris Kaman is the real deal. 14 points, 16 boards, 5 blocks, 1 steal, 2 assists. Never mind the 5 TO.

MIA 111, TOR 96

Chris Bosh is the real deal. 27 points, 7 boards, 2 assists, 2 steals, 1 block. You could have had him for a song. Now it's time to pay up. Sigh.

Rafer Alston with nice rebound game, 29 point, 8 assists, 3 threes, 5 TO. This is not an illusion.

Shaquille: 33 and 18 helps, but he went 7-20 from the line. Ouch. One block.

SEA 100, UTA 109

Uh oh. Remember Andrei Kirilenko? He's back. 20 minutes, 5 blocks, 2 steals, 12 points. That's all you need to know.

Raul Lopez... Could be very, very good if he plays 35+... 20 points, 11 assists, 3 steals. He and Eisley are the only PGs left...

Radmanovic: Follows up 8-three performance with 0-8 performance. Roll with the punches.

Ridnour/Daniels: A devastating combo. Ridnour 17 points, 4 assists, 3 steals... Daniels 25 points on 10 shots, 3 assists, one turn.

WAS 117, PHI 107

Dalembert: 32 minutes, 11 boards, 1-6 shooting, no blocks. Remain calm.

Willie Green: Great AI impression, even Gil Arenas had to admit. 32 points, 2 threes, nice %s, 6 rebs, 4 assists, 4 turns.

Arenas: 33 points, 9 assists, 4 threes, 3 steals, 5 turnovers. What is it with you and the turnovers, Gil?

Juan Dixon: 14 point 4th quarter en route to 22 points, 5 assists, 3 steals, 2 threes, no turns.

IND 86, BOS 100

Ugly.

Jermaine O'Neal: 24 points, 6 reb, 4 blk, 2 stl, 4 TO. Fort hose of you who haven't noticed yet, Jermaine is no longer a good FG shooter.

Pierce. 23-8-4 with 2 steals and 3 threes.

Al Jefferson... 7 minutes. Foot's bothering him.

DET 87, DEN 70

Carmelo being Carmelo... 28 minutes, 5 points on 13 shots. No defense. 2 tunovers.

Camby... Back in the mix and doing it right. No minutes for Nene.

Detroit... Man they put up some ugly boxes. Pick of the litter is Ben Wallace: 14 points, 12 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, 2 blocks, 1 turn.

Even Tskitishvili got some run at the end of this one.

MIN 104, ATL 87

Mismatches galore. Keep every single Hawk off of your roster at all costs.

Cassell returns! 11 games! Played 15 minutes and dropped 8 dimes.

Sprewell scores 32 on ridiculous shooting; Szczerbiak 18 on a great night. Each played 31 minutes.

PHO 121, MIL 115

I think Nash has got the kinks worked out. 21 points, 2 threes, 17 assists, 3 steals. Awesome.

Jim Jackson: 20 minutes. That ain't much.

Michael Redd. Nothing from downtown but 27 points on 24 shots, no D.

HOU 82, NO 77

Forget about both Bob Sura and David Wesley, sooner the better.

Nailon... The flaws are showing but the scoring remains.

Chris Andersen: only 24 minutes; extra players from JJ deal may not be good for his PT.

Dan Dickau: What did I tell you about Dan Dickau? 23 points, 10 assits, 1 steal, 3 threes, 9-16 FG 2-2 FT.

DAL 95, POR 88

Nice games from the usual suspects in Dallas. Stackhouse looking like a strong add.

Van Exel starting to look like a nice drop. 5 points on 2-9 shooting.

Damon Stoudamire: he does great things if you can stomach the FG. 22-7-6 with 2 steals and 4 threes.

D. Miles: 29 minutes, 15 points, 6 boards, 2 TO, 2 steals, one block. Watch the minutes continue to rise...

NJ 113, GS 99

With Speedy out of the lineup with a thigh contusion, Derek Fisher got exposed. 2-14 shooting.

Troy Murphy, 21 & 10. Clean.

Brian Scalabrine! Going for 29 points and 10 rebounds on 12-17 FG, I watched the big man play for USC. He has that shot. Maybe not that shot, but kudos to Veal on a nice night. Does this mean he'll play 40 minutes every night now?

Wednesday, January 26, 2005

Stromeezy


Pau Gasol & Stromile Swift

Stepping in for Pau Gasol is Stromile Swift, averaging 21.3 minutes per game up to the point of the injury.

Stromile is a fantasy beast waiting to happen, and his numbers as a starter are always borderline incredible. I've been wondering for years why Memphis insists on playing Lorenzen Wright (a good offensive center) for more minutes, or even comparable minutes to Stromile Swift. The Grizz don't want to play him 30, but they've refused to trade him many times.

In the first game of Gasol's absence, Swift put up 18 points on 8-16 shooting, with 9 boards, 2 steals, 3 blocks, and 1 turnover... in 38 minutes. This is the kind of line Swift could put up every night. Last year he averaged .7 steals and 1.5 blocks in 19.8 minutes. Run some projections on that, and add to it the fact that when he's starting, he plays better than when he's coming off the bench, minutes being equal: he's a potential defensive monster with decent percentages to match. His rebounding is the least impressive part of his game, but in 35+ minutes, they'll be an overall plus for your squad.

Add now if you have the spot.

Tuesday, January 25, 2005

PAU'S PAWS: Gasol to IL with Plantar Fasciitis

Something may be very wrong with Pau Gasol's foot.

On Tuesday 1/25, Gasol was placed on the IL, meaning that he will miss a minimum of five games.

AP has the precision to call the injury an "injured left foot." Other outlets describe the injury as a "sore foot." And yet, Mike Fratello thinks that Gasol could miss "at least two weeks" with the injury. Interesting...

It seems, upon closer inspection, that Gasol has plantar fasciitis in his left foot. Big ups to the Seattle Post-Intelligencer.

There are a few disturbing things about this injury.

First of all, it's chronic. This is the kind of thing that a player struggles with throughout entire seasons, and most are able to overcome of it with a lot of good, old-fashioned lip-biting. It's not specific to basketball; many will remember that Albert Pujols struggled with this injury for the entire 2004 season. The numbers suggest that it didn't hurt him that badly, but he's still complaining about it going into spring training.

And Gasol, unlike Pujols, has never (perhaps unfairly, seeing his relative health this far), had a reputation as a particularly tough guy. Because of his "finesse"-based offensive game (and probably his Spanish heritage), Gasol has picked up the nickname "Picasso." You see what I'm getting at here. That being said, basketball players also have to pound the hardwood, night-in and night-out; Pujols basically got to stand on first base and trot around the bases, and he's still talking about how excruciating the pain was, and regretting that he didn't have surgery earlier.

Last year, perhaps you'll recall, Wally Szczerbiak missed 53 games with the plantar fasciitis.

Rashard Lewis was diagnosed with it in the offseason, and was extremely worried about it. But he came out like a house on fire this season, and has only recently been slowed by knee tendinitis.

When Kobe Bryant went on the IL 11 days ago with a sprained ankle, he also revealed that he had also been playing the entire season with a sore foot due to--what else?--plantar fasciitis. Kobe's got something to prove this year, insists he can play through it, and says that despite playing 43.1 minutes per game, it's actually gotten better as the season has gone on. That's good for Kobe.

It isn't good that Gasol is going to miss "at least two weeks" with this injury. It's even more unfortunate for Gasol because it is the first time he has gone on the IL in his career.

Let's put it like this. If Marcus Camby came down with a case of plantar fasciitis, he'd probably be in a wheelchair right now.

What makes it more disturbing is that Pau missed four games at the end of last season with an injury described, in similarly vague terms, as a "foot injury." The linked article, published on NBA.com last April, as the Grizz headed into the third game of their playoff series with San Antonio, describes Gasol as "hobbling into the postseason."

It's interesting to note that Gasol's 103 game streak of scoring in double figures ended on January 19 against Phoenix. He struggled to 5 points on 2-6 shooting.

Two nights later at, at Denver, Gasol made it a habit, playing only 26 minutes and scoring only 8 on 4-12 shooting.

On Jan 22, the scoring was back up to 23, but the minutes stayed low, at 27, and he grabbed only 3 boards.

Over his last five, Gasol is averaging 5.6 boards and 1.0 blocks on 44.8 shooting. Those aren't Gasol numbers. When dude can't jump, dude can't dunk, dude can't block, dude can't board. The whole game suffers.

What's even more disturbing (can you even handle any more disturbance?) is that Pau's younger brother Marc is also suffering right now from a mysterious foot injury.

Marc Gasol
Marc Gasol

The younger Gasol, a promising young post player for the very-dominant FC Barcelona of the Euroleague, went out in December and was expected to stay out for close to two-and-a-half months. Young Marc was diganosed with the injury after having begun the AFB season on the IL with a small fracture in his foot (fracture is one of the differential diagnoses for plantar fasciitis). He just opted not to have surgery on the foot, and is now seeing a specialist in Croatia. It sounds like a slam-dunk case of plantar fasciitis.

Be glad that you aren't a Gasol owner right now, because there's a lot of uncertainty and a lot of smokescreening around this out-of-nowhere injury right now.

Plantar Fasciitis

The plantar fascia is a thin layer of tough tissue supporting the arch of the foot. Presumably, the plantar fascia is "tougher" in some than it is in others, pain thresholds being equal. It is worn down by repetitive stress, and when its torn many times over, plantar fasciitis results:

Symptoms usually resolve more quickly when the time between the onset of symptoms and the beginning of treatment is as short as possible. If treatment is delayed, the complete resolution of symptoms may take 6-18 months or more.

I doubt Gasol will be out six months; I don't think he'll be out for three months.

But if I owned him, I'd be worried, and I'd be worried about reduced production even when he does come back. The severity and duration of this injury are influenced by the anatomical structure of the foot and leg: people with very flat feet or very high arches are especially prone, as are those with tight calf muscles, which inhibit the flexing of the ankle. Because plantar fasciitis changes the way you walk, associated foot (see: Kobe), knee (see: Rashard Lewis), hip and back problems (see: Kobe) often develop as a consequence.

Although the pain of plantar fasciitis occurs in the heel ("heel spurs" is usually a colloquialism for plantar fasciitis, and plantar fasciitis is often misdiagnosed for the much-less-serious "heel spurs"), it is not caused by the heel striking the ground.

Scott's Online Book does a better job of explanation than I can:

When walking and at the moment the heel of the trailing leg begins to lift off the ground, the plantar fascia endures tension that is approximately two times body weight.   This moment of maximum tension is increased and "sharpened" (it increases suddenly) if there is lack of flexibility in the calf muscles. A percentage increase in body weight causes the same percentage increase in tension in the fascia.

The Injured Foot
What Scott's saying is that it isn't good news that Pau has visibly been in the weightroom since entering the league as a stringbean: it increases this injury's chances of coming and staying.

Rest, and lots of it, is the best medicine for this injury, but surgery is required in some cases. Typical recovery time is closer to two months than two weeks.

The Spin

Foot injuries are a bitch, because they recur, and are usually structural in nature.

On a personal, anecdotal level, I knew Curtis Borchardt in college, and watched him endure two major foot surgeries in two years because of repeated fractures. He was already coming off of one foot injury when he walked in the door at Stanford. After he left early for the NBA, he missed his entire rookie season because of a new stress fracture.

Another player known to have had repeated foot problems because the structure of his foot predisposed him to reinjure it is Cleveland's Zydrunas Ilgauskas. For his third surgery, Big Z opted for a more radical procedure called "osteotomy," in which the bones of the foot are actually broken, cut, and recontoured to distribute pressure more evenly along the entire foot.

Let's hope that there's no structural problem with Pau's foot. It would be unwise, however, to discount that possibility. Make and review trade offers accordingly.

If you believe that chronic physical ailments and bone structures travel in bloodlines, you should be extra worried about Pau's future this season.



The Dime Dropper

Sunday, January 23, 2005

Buying On Spec

The following is a list of players who might be on waivers in your league and who should definitely be on your radar heading into this week. I'm not saying you should add them, but if you've got an open spot, you should strongly consider it.

Jalen Rose, G/GF, Toronto Raptors

If you were getting benched in favor of Eric Williams, you'd be pissed, too. It really does seem to me like the Michigan product has gotten hated on at every stop in his career, and has had to claw and scratch his way to every bit of playing time and respect he's gotten... Well, he's having to do it again this year and in the past couple of weeks since the trade of Vince, his game has really taken off. Right now it isn't much more than scoring, but he's started to add some of the trimmings that make his fantasy game look so appealing when he's playing minutes and playing his hardest.

Tonight, he went 22-4-4 with one steal and one turnover, four threes, on 8-15 shooting from the field and 2-2 from the line. Could your squad use that kind of production?

Over his past five (not including today's performance), in a miniscule (but increasing) 29.2 minutes per game, Rose is going off for 21.8 points on .494 shooting (15.8 attempts), .8 threes, and .931 FT shooting on 5.8 attempts. The defensive numbers are not pretty and neither are the boards or assists, but at least the latter two should be on their way.

Look for Rose and fellow disgruntled Raptor Donyell Marshall to be dealt soon to the New York Knicks, who--I'll bet you--will be introducing Isiah Thomas as their new coach within the next several weeks. This should complete, at least for this generation, the exodus of Canadian basketball talent to the New York/New Jersey metroplex. It looks like the Knicks' offer of Kurt Thomas and Anfernee Hardaway isn't quite good enough... Trevor Ariza, anyone?

Dan Dickau, PG, New Orleans Hornets

My leaguemates scoffed when I selected Kirk Hinrich in the fourth round of our draft this year. Now who's laughing? Dan Dickau, acquired in December from the Mavericks in exchange for Darrell Armstrong, is a young point guard who is very much in the mold of Hinrich. He shoots a poor percentage from the field, but he shoots well from three and from the line, and he's great at dishing and stealing the ball. He's got that sweet, sweet, West Coast point guard game (see: Luke Ridnour, Gary Payton, Brevin Knight) and he's looking to impress while filling in for the oft-injured and soon-to-be-traded Baron Davis.

Since the trade to NO, he's played 28.2 minutes per game and produced 12.8 points, 2.8 boards, 1.2 threes, 3.6 assists, and .9 steals against 2.1 turnovers. Over his past five, he's up to 35.0 minutes per game, in which he's producing 18.4 points, 3.2 boards, 4.8 dimes, 1.2 steals, and 2.2 threes on .420 FG and .852 FT. Tasty.

That's Kirk Hinrich lite... and not even that lite. If you're looking for a short-term add for point guard numbers, Dickau's a great add right now. Once Baron gets the crick out of his back, Dickau should return to the fringes of fantasy, but if he ever gets the starting job for a sustained period of time, he definitely belongs on your roster. It's a shame that the Hornets are looking to acquire a "first string point guard" like Jason Williams of the Grizz in exchange for Baron Davis. Why not firm up the frontcourt and let Dickau do his dirty binness at the point? I'd also feel bad for Earl Watson, who definitely deserves the opportunity to start in Memphis once J Dub gets out of Dodge.

Chris Kaman, C, Los Angeles Clippers

I would go on at length about Kaman's potential to keep blowing up at the C even after Chris Wilcox comes back from injury, but when I accidentally deleted a previous version of this post, the folks at Fanball scooped me and made him their Pickup of the Week. He's good. Check it out.

Jason Hart, PG, Charlotte Bobcats

He's the second, more efficient coming of Brevin Knight. He is Antonio Daniels to Knight's Luke Ridnour. I ate up the 14, 7, and 11 he put up for me today on .500 shooting and no turnovers. He might be at the end of his run, but keep your eye on Brevin's balky ankle once he comes back.

Juan Dixon, G, Wiz

Hope you picked him up when you read the post devoted to his demotion back to the bench. If you did, you were handsomely rewarded on Jan 21 with 26 points, 4 threes, .688 shooting, 5 assists, 2 steals, and one measly turnover. I was stoked. He sat out last night's game with the flu, but look for him to come back and keep putting up fresh lines while Hughes is out. Jarvis Hayes is no reason for concern here.

Darius Miles, GF, Portland Trail Blazers

There's a lanky, vicious, multi-talented shotblocker coming off the IL this week, and his name is not Andrei Kirilenko. Before going on the IL with a knee contusion (I still doubt that he's completely recovered, but he's the healthiest of the Blazer frontcourt's walking wounded), D Miles, the pride of East St. Louis, was starting to blow up. If Shareef and/or Zach Randolph are out a while longer, the Miles Child should continue to get around 40 minutes, and the production he can put up in that time is scary. Think something like .500 FG, .500 FT, 16 PTS, 8 Rebounds, 1.5 steals, and 2.5 blocks... Players who can do that at any position are rare, but if you can find those numbers at SG and SF, you're one step ahead of the game. Keep an eye out.

Lee Nailon, F, New Orleans Hornets

Scoring, broken down in its purest form. People forget that Lee Nailon led Division IA in scoring as a TCU Horned Frog. over his four year college career, dude averaged 23.9 points on .532 FG shooting. He has that shot.

What he may not have is a well-rounded fantasy game, but recent returns indicate that he's starting to figure things out while playing major minutes for the miserable Hornets (you'll notice that three Hornets and one ex-Hornet appear in this piece).

Jim Jackson, GF, Phoenix Suns

Jimmy Jack wanted to get traded to a contender, so he didn't even bother reporting to New Orleans. It's hard to blame him and his 34 year old ass. Well, is this good enough? He steps into an outstanding situation in Phoenix, playing sixth man alongside the best distributors he's played with since the days of the Three J's, when he played with Jason Kidd and Jamal Mashburn in Dallas.

His minutes will take a huge hit from the 40 he'd been playing the last two years in Houston, but he should still get enough run to keep his numbers looking pretty useful. It should give one pause to note that never in his career, before he played in Houston, was he allowed to jack up anything approaching 5.1 threes a game, which greatly enhanced his fantasy value. However, seeing the huge increase in production from three this season for both Joe Johnson and Quentin Richardson, it wouldn't be surprising to see him doing something very similar in a reserve role in Phoenix. Watch to see how the minutes shake out before you get too excited, but if the owner in your league dropped him when he opted not to show up in NO, now would be a great time to pick him up for the stretch run.

Jerry Stackhouse, GF, Wiz

Fine, I'll stop hating on Stack's game for a minute to tell you that, over the past month, he's averaged 17.6 points, 3.4 boards, 2.8 assists, .6 steals, and 1.0 threes on 2.4 turnovers. You might be able to use those numbers.

As tasty as the numbers appear to be, I am also contractually obligated to tell you that that nice-looking production rates him 121 by average over the same time span.

Nene Hilario, FC, Denver Nuggets

You'll all remember how Nene was the talk of the town while Camby and Martin were out a couple of weeks ago. Then they came back. Then Nene got suspended for four games for fighting with Michael Olowokandi. If he was still on your roster after all that, you're a much more patient owner than I am.

But there are a couple of recent pieces of news that current and prospective Nene owners should be interested in. First, Nene served the last game of his four game suspension today (Jan 23) against he Mavericks. Second, in a freak accident that no one could have seen coming, Marcus Camby left the game in the first quarter with a sprained ankle. X-rays were negative, but Marcusis the kind of guy who can turn negative X-rays into two-month hiatuses. Watch him go into back spasms now because he's favoring his bad ankle...


NOT YET...

Chris Andersen, C, New Orleans Hornets

Last year, playing for the Nugs (it's appropriate), Andersen blocked an average of 1.6 shots per game in 14.5 minutes per game. Make that thirty and the math is easy: Andersen looked like someone who had the potential to be a 3.0+ blocks monster if he ever got the opportunity to play.

He's getting there this season on a very bad and increasingly thin New Orleans squad. This year he's up to 20.1 minutes a game, but he's only averaging 1.2 blocks. The good thing is that Andersen looks like he did some serious gym work in the offseason, as his FG is up to .519 (from .443) and his FT is up to .756 (from a devastating .589). In the past five games, Chris is averaging a whopping 25.4 minutes, .568 shooting, .833 from the line, to go along with 11.4 points, 10.2 rebounds, 1.6 blocks, and .6 turnovers. If he can keep that up, you could do a lot worse at your second C spot, and if the minutes stay up and the blocks come back, as they should, look out...

DON'T BITE ON...

Carlos Arroyo, PG, Detroit Pistons

It's one thing to back up Chauncey Billups; it's another to back up Lindsey Hunter. It was supposed to be a breakthrough season for Carlos after leading Puerto Rico to an impressive performance in the Olympics. Somewhere along the line, he really must have pissed Jerry Sloan off, and now it looks like his rep has taken enough of a hit to set his career back a few years. Carlos could have been a major player on a Jazz team thin at point guard and thin overall... Now he'll be a third stringer on the World Champion Detroit Pistons. Combine that with the fact that he's a strictly offensive point guard who doesn't hit threes, and it's easy to imagine that he won't be a Larry Brown favorite, either. Don't buy the hype.

-The Dime Dropper

Transactional Chocolate Vol. 1

*******************************************************************************
Monday, January 10, 2005

Orlando Magic
Acquired guard Doug Christie from the Sacramento Kings for guard
Cuttino Mobley and center Michael Bradley.
*******************************************************************************

THE BOMBSHELL

When I heard about this trade, I had to do a double take.

I don't know about the rest of you, but my first reaction was this: Magic GM John Weisbrod should be drawn and quartered for throwing away his young talent like this. Couldn't he get any more for Cuttino Mobley, a sharpshooting perimeter player with good hands on defense, surrounded by positive buz, who was just entering the prime of his career? Was 34-year-old Doug Christie really the best offer they could get? Did they have to add a promising young big man to the deal in order to make it happen? Did they even talk to anyone else?

In effect, I thought, didn't this mean that the Magic had traded Michael Bradley, Tyronn Lue and Tracy McGrady for Steve Francis, Doug Christie, and Kelvin Cato? Was I missing something?

My first reaction was that this deal was good for neither team.

After much chatter this offseason about trading either Webber or Stojakovic to improve clubhouse chemistry in Sacramento, I was shocked to see that the Kings would move one of the league's "good guys," a Pepperdine alum who liked Sacramento, liked his teammates, was liked by his teammates, and who had a long history of distributing the rock, stroking the three, playing league-best man-up D, and being an overall efficiency monster.

I wondered what the Kings stood to gain by adding an undersized SG, a low-percentage FG shooter at SG whose primary value was in shooting the spot up three and taking advantage of easy defensive assignments to get into passing lanes. With Bibby and Stojakovic--both outstanding outside shooters with limited abilities--on the perimeter, I didn't see what the Kings stood to gain by acquiring Cuttino, a primarily offensive player who plays a brand of basketball similar to Bibby and Stojakovic without being nearly as good at it.

That being the case, and knowing that Mobley was surely owned by someone one of league, my first practical reaction was to check my league's waiver wire to see if Doug Christie was available, expecting him to step into big-time starter's minutes as a defensive specialist in Orlando. Sure, he was showing symptoms of abrupt decline... but surely, I thought, 30+ minutes a night and a primary role would be enough to squeeze some more life out of those knees?

THE FIRE

The trade started to make a little more sense when I read some of Weisbrod's commentary surrounding the trade. Apparently, the Magic had no intention of giving Doug Christie 30+ minutes a night, and that this was a move based ideas like "team chemistry" and "team concept" more than it was on pure talent. It's a bold move, to be sure, and arguably a foolish one, but at least it's a kind of logic that I can understand.

What I had forgotten about was the six year, $39 million deal that the Magic had given to one Hedo Turkoglu in the offseason, right after they pulled the trigger on the T-Mac trade. It would make sense to sign Hedo to this deal before the T-Mac deal, but it still baffles the mind to pay $6.5 million per to a guy who had never played more than 26 average minutes in a season and who, once, barely eked out a scoring average of 10, who you intend to sit on your bench. Presumably, the Mag intended to give the Mad Turk some run, but the acquisition of two must play guards in Francis and Mobley, to go along with a supposedly rejuvenated Grant Hill, made this an impossibility.

It seems to be an unfortunate rule of thumb in front offices everywhere (except maybe in Memphis, where Jerry West does whatever the hell he thinks is right at any given time, you can kiss his ass about his "mistakes" if you want) to stand by your well-paid mistakes, to talk them up, to play them silly, and to let overall team performance suffer in the meantime, in the hopes that the inexplicably bad performance of the product on the court will distract from the poor decision-making that produced it. Ricky Davis, Antoine Walker, Allan Houston, Adonal Foyle... the list goes on and on.

Appearances led us to believe that Weisbrod was not buying into that philosophy.

Yes, before the trade, the Magic were giving their $6.5 million man about 25 minutes per night, to which he was responding with about 12 points a game on 41% and nothing--I mean nothing--else. This is the kind of deal that, in layman's terms, makes a GM look like an asshole, not necessarily to the fans, but to the guy the writes the checks, including his own.

Did Weisbrod now believe that Hedo was a bust, a [bad] spot-up shooter with no vertical and no D, an unfortunate bad signing who probably wasn't worth $6.5 million in a tough-to-predict offseason free agent market? Was he not destined for major burn?

Weisbrod had ample reason to maintain the status quo, after all. Despite the naysaying, the Magic were 18-14 at the time of the trade, and were within three wins of their total from last season. Dwight Howard was developing nicely, Hedo was hitting his fill-in treys, Grand Hill was running, at full stride, for several games on end, and Francis and Mobley seemed to be enjoying--one another, of course--but career resurgences, as well. Mobley wasn't playing nearly the 40 minutes to which he had been accustomed, but hey, the results appeared to be there.

But for some reason, Weisbrod wanted to shake things up.

Was there a fly in the ointment here?

Cuttino Mobley--a major piece of the trade in which the Magic lost the [throat clear] best player in the NBA--would have to be relegated to the role of "bench player" in order to make time for Turkoglu. Not only could this have looked weak for Weisbrod, he would have to convince Coach Johnny Davis to actually do it--and it is more than believable that Davis preferred to play Mobley. Steve Francis liked Mobley; damn he enjoyed playing with that man... A lot. Some of you may get a kick out of the degree of man-love spouted by an angry Francis after hearing of the trade:

"I can't put it into words," he said. "Playing with a guy, living with a guy, just knowing that every day when I wake up that's something I can count on, that I'm going to be in practice or in a game with Cuttino.

Him not being here is going to be tough for me. I don't know what I'm going to wake up for." -AP


Jesus. He doesn't know what he's going to wake up for? Seems like he's taking the loss of his "backcourt" partner a little to hard, wouldn't you say?

To which Weisbrod:

"We're trying to get Steve into a totally new way of playing basketball, a five-man outlook, and obviously that becomes difficult when you have someone there that you are so accustomed to and familiar with," Weisbrod said. "Sometimes Cuttino and his familiarity could be a crutch for Steve. It's hard to lose that, but I think (Francis) will be better for it."


OK, John, stop winking at me. I think... I get... the point.

Weisbrod wanted Mobley out of the mix for a number of reasons, none of which related to him not being good enough to play on this team. Unsurprisingly, Weisbrod suspected this wouldn't go over well with either coach or player. "There were storm clouds on the horizon," Weisbrod said. "Cuttino's minutes were going to go down and not up and I'm not sure he would have been happy with playing 20 to 24 minutes a night."

So not only was there reason to believe that Hedo wasn't getting the burn his contract demanded, management believed that Mobley was, in effect, a bad influence on Francis on the court (and maybe off the court?). So they got rid of Mobley. Because Francis passed the ball to him too much, apparently, instead of inside, to those beastly low post offensive madmen known as Kelvin Cato and Dwight Howard.

At the time of the trade, nobody seemed particularly happy. Even the notorious Christies shed a tear for Sacramento.

With Hill in the lineup, it becomes a natural move. Make Hedo a big 2 to go along with the newly fleet Hill, and everything's gravy. You've got Doug Christie to come in off the bench and play the tightest of D against front line starters who are getting tired. Right?

THE FALLOUT

Happenings since the trade really have made it look like a success for both sides.

In The Cut

Cuttino has averaged 17.5, 4, and 4 to go along with 2.5 threes and 1.8 steals in Sacramento, and he's doing it at almost 44%. Playing his old 40 minutes again, both Cuttino and the Kings seem to be loving it. Offensive has always been their bag, baby, and Cuttino--accurate perimeter jump shooter, "pesky defender"--does look a lot like his fellow perimeter Kings. But so what? If you can keep up with that company, you're in good shape. Sacramento is an offense factory, and there's no reason why the whole starting five--Webber, Brad Miller, Mike Bibby, Peja Stojakovic and Cuttino Mobley--can't sustain or even improve their levels of productivity. Mobley's fantasy owners, feel free to rejoice: your man is going to get his minutes, once again, and it will be alongside much, much better passers and shooters than he had when he was playing 40 in Houston. By the way, it turns out Mobley's no spring chicken. He's 29, which isn't old--Doug Christie, he's a little old--but probably puts Mobley in his decline phase. Get those minutes while you can still run em, Cut.


HE SURE DO

Hedo Turkoglu is loving life right now.

News of the trade broke on January 10. Hedo played his usual 25 minutes that night, backing up Cuttino Mobley. He went 0-9 from the field for 6 points, missed both his three attempts, one of his two free throws, grabbed 5 boards, threw in a dime and a couple of fouls, but basically, but basically, he stunk the place up.

The very next night, sans he played 43 minutes alongside Grant Hill, dropped 26 points on 8-16 from the field, 2-5 from three, made all eight of his fros, and threw in 6 boards, 4 assists, 2 steals, and two TOs, and the Mag beat the Wolves 87-80.

That's hot.

Since then, it's been off to the races for Hidayet, He's now played six games since the trade, and he's averaging 38.3 minutes a game. Hope he's dropped the smoking habit he picked up with Vlade and the Kings back in the day. It looks like he has. Over his past five games, Hedo's going for 20.8 points, 5.2 boards, 2.8 assists, .8 steals, only 1.8 turnovers, and 1.8 threes, all on .421 from the field--not good, but not crushing, compared to Mobley--and a whopping 91.2 from teh line on 6.8 attempts per game. Think that could help your FT?

Hedo's a keeper. He'll score from here on out, with a bunch of threes, a bad FG percentage, a great FT percentage, low turnovers, and no D.

DC

This is Doug's only nickname, which is unsurprising, considering he's just about the whitest-bread guy you'll find who has that many tattoos. Apparently his relationship with his wife bugs a lot of people out, and even I have to admit, it seems a little outrageous. She's been called a nutcase by more than one. Jackie Christie's mother lives with them. Jackie insists that their love is "boundless and free." You get the idea...

The point is, DC's on a leash, and the leash looked like it was going to follow him to Orlando, both on and off the court.

Since coming to ORL, his production has fallen off dramatically. His minutes have been cut from 32.1 to 24.0, and the rest of his stats--playable, before, are now killing you in every category except for steals, which is really the only place he's making his money in his new bench role.

Unbreakable

Stop the presses!!!! Apparently, Grant Hill has a cyst in his wrist. This was revealed after the MRI supposedly came back "negative." Hmmm... This injury has also been referred to as a "bruised right wrist." Concealment happens around injuries all the time, and this seems no exception. It usually means they're hiding something worse. For what it's worth, Grant doesn't sound worried; he should be able play "as long as it's not this ankle right here." Yikes. Tap some wood, son.

I'm not joking and I'm not rooting against Grant Hill, but Doug Christie could very well be stepping into some serious minutes, seriously soon, and for a long time to come. Something about Grant Hill's joints does not inspire confidence in me. He might be a good speculative add to replace Hill's all-around game... you'll lose some scoring, but you'll gain some threes and steals.


In the end, it seems that everyone wins... Except for Grant Hill. That guy is cursed.

The Dime Dropper

Basketball Reference

This is just an informational post.

For in-year, updated statistics, we have the usual suspects at Yahoo! and ESPN.

Some of us like to take an occasional stroll through the game's history, and when taking these strolls, it's helpful to have a resource that gives you all statistical information on every player, and every coach... ever. I get all this information at:

BASKETBALL REFERENCE

It's a great counterpart to its better-known older brother, baseballreference.com, but it serves the same great purpose. Feel free to check it out. I, for instance, am going to use it right now to figure out if Scott Skiles is the amazing coach this season with the Bulls would seem to indicate he is, and look through his careers W-L as a coach.

You could also use this site to look up his career statistics as a player, and see how insulting you think it is that Jason Kidd said of Skiles [whom he hates]: "He always wanted to be me, but he has no idea what it's like to be me." Skiles did have a pretty tidy "pure point guard" career of his own, you know.

The Two Sams

About a month ago, I pulled off a trade in my league in which I acquired Sam Cassell and Sam Dalembert in exchange for Manu Ginobili and Damon Stoudamire. My league squawked, saying that I had gotten the better end of the deal, and my entreaties for them to observe the rankings and be reasonable were largely ignored. Nevertheless, the trade was executed, and I was excited at the prospect of acquiring two fantasy players who I would have picked before the sixth round for two players I selected in the sixth and twelfth rounds, respectively.

Cassell's early returns were good, and he looked like he was emerging from his early slump to get back to doing his 18 points, 7 assists, .480 FG .880 FT thang. I was also pleased to have added Dalembert, who looked, pre-season, like a good bet to start putting up Ben Wallace type numbers... except with scoring and FG percentages that were respectable. That sounded like a pretty intriguing player with great upside.

The ensuing time has done much to make me look like a fool.

Sam Cassell just finished sitting out his ninth game in a row due to a "tweaked hamstring" that all we know about is, "may be much more severe than originally thought." He still hasn't come back. Enough to give a manager the willies.

In the meantime, of course, the entire Blazers frontcourt went out with an assortment of injuries, and they decided to go with the tiny backcourt of Nick Van Exel and Damon Stoudamire, with both playing huge minutes. This was after they had already announced that they were bringing Stoudamire back into the starting role that he had lost when I traded him. Arrrghhh... The rest is history, as Damon proceeded to blow up and be incredibly valuable, once again proving his annual haters and naysayers wrong.

Meanwhile, Ginobili continued to do the little things that had made him highly ranked, and his rank remained very nice. Not crushing, but nice. That was until last night's 48 point performance. Ouch.

Then, of course, there's Dalembert, who hadn't done one damn thing on my squad since I acquired him. Sure, he was on my bench, but it's painful watching those pathetic numbers stack up every night when there are so many intriguing waiver wire prospects on the board. This guy looked when I acquired him like he was about to start plaing some serious minutes in a starting role. Right after I traded for him, Mark Jackson started playing huge minutes. Yikes. And Sam continued to unimpress for so incredibly long that I dropped him this afternoon, and picked up Jason Hart, to take him for a spin tomorrow night in what may be his last night of starting before Brevin gets back.

It's just one night, I told myself... What's Dalembert going to do? Right now he's trash and no one is going to pick him up. He'll be safe, waiting for you on the wire in a couple of days... That was until tonight, when Dalembert finally picked his time to BLOW UP RIDICULOUS right in my face, scoring 24 points and grabbing 16 rebounds on .846 1.000 shooting, adding 4 blocks, and doing it all at the small price of two turnovers. Can you fucking believe it?

Maybe he won't do it again for two months, but I would give almost anything right now to own Sam Dalembert instead of Jason Hart. I can't even use my [2] waiver priority to pick him back up, because I'm the one who dropped him. Unbelievable. Let's just hope that no one notices he's gone until Monday at midnight. I'm not holding my breath.

Jason Hart, anyone?

Friday, January 21, 2005

Juan Gone?

As I told you in my last post, Juan Dixon looked like a great bet to put up nice fantasy numbers as a replacement for Larry Hughes.

In his first game after Hughes' injury, Dixon started, played 43 minutes, and gave a really nice performance with 19 points, 6 rebounds, 6 assists, 4 steals, and a three to cap it off. The nasty parts of his line were the parts you'd expect: 8-20 from the field (1-5 from three), 2-3 from the line, and 4 turnovers. All in all, this is a guy you wanted to start and would want to start for the duration of the injury.

But this production apparently isn't good enough for Wiz head coach Eddie Jordan, who told the press today that Jarvis Hayes will replace Juan Dixon in the starting lineup, because "there was no one to replace the spark that Juan usually gives when coming off the bench."

I hope that this leaves you scratching your head, as it does me. Apparently, Jordan went to the Flip Saunders school of coaching, which teaches that you should punish players for having good attitudes about coming off the bench, and reward those who have bad attitudes about coming off the bench (see: the recent benching of Wally Szczerbiak, playing incredibly well in starting role, in favor of the "mercurial" Latrell Sprewell... who I promptly added to my squad).

"It's nothing against Juan," said Jordan, "Juan's a great energy guy off the bench." That's outstanding. I think that's really intelligent, Eddie. Well done. Meanwhile, note that Jarvis Hayes has played shitty all season long because he has a thumb injury that won't "recover fully until he gets some rest in the offseason." Congrats, guys. Way to go. Get that production into the lineup.

In all seriousness, though, Jarvis Hayes probably won't offer you much this year. Not only is his thumb busted, he's just not that valuable a fantasy player. He does have the potential to score in bunches, and to rebound a little bit, but he won't give you any defensive numbers whatsoever, and as far as dropping dimes goes... forget about it.

He did have one ridiculous game this season, and it was recent (January 17):

32 10 20 50.0 5 7 71.4 2 2 100.0 0 4 4 0 1 2 0 0 27

That's: 32 minutes, 27 points on 50% shooting, 5 threes, 4 rebounds, 0 assists, 2 steals, 1 turnover. Not bad, not bad.

If he duplicates that line in the coming weeks, I'll be shocked. I would expect him to average about 13 points, 1.5 threes, 5.5 boards, 2.3 assists, 1.1 steals and 1.7 turnovers during his stretch as a starter, at a clip of about 40% from the field (if he's lucky), and 83% from the line.

It has its charms, I guess, but it's not Juan Dixon. It isn't that John Blaze shit.

It's a difficult situation because I don't want to drop Juan Dixon, nor do I want to pick up Jarvis Hayes. It could be a good idea to just cut bait with the both of them, and take Jason Hart for a spin, who is filling in for Brevin Knight, out with (surprise!) an ankle injury.

I'd recommend waiting and seeing on both Hayes and Dixon to see if Jordan changes his mind... Cross your fingers.

Tuesday, January 18, 2005

Larry Hughes Postmortem

By now you've heard that breakout fantasy superstar (and former Saint Louis University Billiken) Larry Hughes is on the shelf for four-to-six weeks with a broken thumb.

This is a crushing loss for those squads who were relying on him, mostly because Larry was starting to look completely different from the inefficient fantasy mess that he had always been. His leaps forwards this year were numerous, and were starting to look like they'd be lasting.

Let's have a quick look at his progress by focusing on the three categories where he's made the greatest strides...

FG

We're talking about a guy whose career FG stands at .414, and that's with the added bump that this year gave him. Last year, Hughes managed .397 on 16.5 shots a game. He managed 18.8 points on those 16.5 shots. For those who don't know, that's crushing for your team FG.

Sure, you need scoring, but you don't need scoring that middling for that kind of price.

This was nothing new for Larry, as he had learned long ago, in Golden State (where else?) how lucrative it can be to be an incredibly inefficient "scorer". Perhaps he was pushed to be a star before he was ready, but the results speak for themselves. In 1999, playing for GSW, Larry hoisted up 21.4 shots per game--and made 8.3 of them. That comes out to .389. Ouch. He finished with 22.7 points on those 21.4 shots per game. He also wasn't afraid to stroke the 3-ball that year, doing it 2.3 times a game at a 24.3% clip. Double ouch.

In 2000, his percentage slipped to 38.3. By 2001, the Warriors had had it, reduced Larry's role in the offense, and he managed .424 on only 11.1 shots per game. His days as a budding superstar appeared to be numbered.

Luckily for Larry, he moved to an even more desperate organization when he joined the Wiz. Still in a limited role, he raised his FG in 2002 to a whopping .467 on 11.1 shots per game.

It was at about this point that the Wiz decided to move him back into a primary role and encourage him to shoot the ball more. Same player, same result. Taking more [bad] shots again, Larry stroked it at .397 last year on on 16.5 shots.

All of the poor shooting in Larry's past made this year's 43.5% on 17.3 shots seem like a miracle... or a fluke.


AST
For a shooting guard, Larry had had good seasons dropping the dime before. 4.5 in 2000 was his previous career best, sandwiched by impressive seasons in 1999 and 2001, when he went 4.1 and 4.3, respectively. This season, however, he was averaging a career best 5.3 with Gilbert Arenas and Antawn Jamison as his targets, easily beating his previous best. But what makes it even more ridiculous is that he was doing it at a career-best 2.30 A/T ratio. Larry Hughes?! Dropping it at 2+? This is the kind of ridiculous improvement in efficiency that bumps a player's overall value into the stratosphere, and gives your team a lethal combination of low TO and high AST. His previous best was 1.87, in 2001, which was itself much, much better than his next-best season. During that season, you'll note that Larry averaged a robust 12.3 points and 3.4 rebounds. Not quite as good as this season...


REB
Another career best here. 6.1 beats 5.9, in 1999, when he shot .387.

And of course, there's the...


STL
Larry's always been a thief. If you've owned him before--ever--it should have been the steals you were going for. The other stuff wasn't ever that impressive, given the other places he hurt you. But who could have seen this year coming? 2.8 easily led the Association and bested his previous career best of 1.9, which he'd done twice, back in 1999 & 2000.


But 2.8!? To go with 20 points, 6 boards, and 5 dimes? For a guy who was a good bet to shoot near 80% from the line, FG be damned? Combine all this with the 1 three per game that he was dropping this year, after having added it to his arsenal for the first time last year, and you'll realize that the Larry Hughes of 2005 had top-ten--in the long-term--written all over him.

Consider this a huge, gigantic bump in the road.

I admit that for a while I was trying to get him on the cheap from the guy who owned him in my league... but at some point, you have to respect the game and start offering some top-round talent. For whatever reason--his bad rep, his long history of selfish play, poor attitude, and underachievement--I wasn't willing to offer it.

Now I'm feeling relieved that I didn't.

Still, right now might be a good time to free up your IL spot, pony up a couple of mid-to-late round picks who are enjoying a good stretch, settle in for a month or so, and attempt to pick up a guy who is guaranteed to gain your squad a ton of points all across the board once he comes back.

Keep in mind, folks: he's only 25. He was bound to get better. He looks like a good bet to finally make good on the promise that made him Philadelphia's 8th overall pick after his rookie season in college.

Not nearly as much research has been done in basketball as in baseball on the ages during which one can expect player to produce his "peak" and "career" seasons. In baseball, age 27 is responsible for more career seasons than any other. In basketball, though, the knees wear out a little bit quicker and the game gets tighter a little bit sooner... I'd be willing to gamble that 25, in basketball, is that magic age. It would be a shame to think that we're missing out on a huge chunk of a great talent's best chance at an MVP-type season.

In the meantime, Juan Dixon is a great pick-up as a Larry-Lite type replacement. More on him later. Just don't expect him to duplicate Larry's amazing, career-defining season.

Welcome To The Next Level

Welcome, content-starved fantasy NBA basketball enthusiasts! Your long search has come to an end!

Now that you're here, let's talk about your team for a minute...

THE PAST

You've participated in fantasy leagues before, and you're probably pretty good at them... But there's always that guy who seems to know a little bit more than you do a week before you even hear the news. And he's the guy who walks away with the league title.

You've probably noticed that there isn't nearly enough fantasy basketball content available to keep your team ahead of the curve.

The Internet is loaded with fantasy baseball content. You can probably find no less than five large media outlets that offer you daily player updates on injuries and values for every player in the MLB universe--for a fee, of course. Add to that the number of obscure professional and personal websites offering free insight and humor related to fantasy baseball, and you've got information overload before you even hit your draft.

But Basketball seems to be different story...

THE PRESENT

Even ESPN, the Microsoft of the sports media world, gives fantasy basketball the cold shoulder. Out of the Box, originally a daily tour of the boxscores for baseball, has become a watered-down, weekly, shell of its former self for the basketball season. Pay ESPN's Insider fee and you're privy to articles that will tell you what you already knew--that your fourth round pick has been a disappointment--but don't tell you what to do about it.

They offer you a Player Rater (Version 2.0!!), but still haven't addressed its obvious limitations. For instance, did you know that both the ESPN Player Rater and the Yahoo Player Rater do not take into account quantity of shots taken when they compute relative values for FG% and FT%? It's true... That means that a .545 FG from Kelvin Cato (on about 5 shots per game) looks better to a Player Rater than Carlos Boozer's .526 (on about 12.5 shots per game). This is the kind of flaw that has Kelvin Cato checking in at a cool #71 by average, while Boozer limps into the top 100 at #92.

If you're willing to trade me Boozer for Cato, we need to get in a league together real soon...

What's wrong with this picture? Shouldn't you be able to trust your Player Raters? Are they not infallible?

Are you the guy who's wondering why your team is floundering when you've got a roster that includes Kobe Bryant, Steve Francis, Yao Ming, RJ and Carmelo Anthony?

Welcome, friend, you've come to the right place.

Player Raters tell us some valuable things--Shawn Marion really is that good, folks--but they give an incomplete and distorted picture of what it's going to take to win your league.

And if you have a Yahoo! fantasy team and are trying to win based on ESPN content, good luck: ESPN's player rater doesn't factor in turnovers--your league standings do. Trust me.

Because ESPN leagues don't care about turnovers, their columnists don't either, and this really distorts the players they recommend for your team, and the ones they write off as busts. The people at ESPN are the kinds of people who continue to devastate fantasy teams every year by recommending people like Baron Davis, Shaquille O'Neal, and... god forbid that you took this guy before the tenth round... the dreaded, dreaded Carmelo Anthony.

So what are you left with when the cool, clean objectivity of the Player Rater fails you?

THE FUTURE

You need quality insight and analysis that looks--literally--"Outside the Box" to find out which players contribute to a winning squad and which players cripple it, to give timely playing time and injury updates, and to make accurate calls about the keepers and pretenders that matter in your league. And you need it more than once a week, or whenever ESPN can get around to it.

You need insight that's intelligent, and that isn't afraid to challenge convention, and you need to get it from someone you can trust. What does ESPN offer you?

Well, when it's basketball season, you can forget about the both headlines and headliners (goodbye Rob Neyer, so long Peter Gammons; hello... Greg Anthony?) when it's time to read the rare updates that they throw to us like so many table scraps. Just when you thought it couldn't get any nerdier, look, now, as Eric Karabell is replaced by red-faced eighth grader Kevin Rounce as guest columnist.

What you need is not a troupe of geeks and adolescents who, while dismissing for weeks the contributions of guys like Marko Jaric and Damon Jones, will tell you that it might be time to give Rick Brunson a shot, to ride the Ricky Davis train, or to drop Wally Szczerbiak for Eddie Griffin (whoops). You can trust me: I will never, ever tell you to ride the Ricky Davis train.

What you need is not the "old school" opinions of people who have played real basketball, like Walt "Clyde" Frazier, who will tell you how that even though Iverson makes about 39% of his shots on a given year, he's valuable because he's able to "create his own shot." That's great, I guess, but winning a fantasy title is a lot like winning an NBA championship--if you're going to let a guy who makes 39% of his shots take 25 of them a game, you probably shouldn't be in charge.

No, friends, what you need is right here. I'm the Dime Dropper. I'm here to drop them dimes...

Here, you'll find advice on which players to pick up, which players to drop, and which players to keep an eye on, and which player to avoid. Here, you'll find out who the establishment overrates and who it underrates. You'll find out who to buy low and who to sell high. You will learn to respect the turnover. You'll get this insight with an occasionally acerbic wit.

And in the end, you'll win your league.

Welcome.

The Dime Dropper